A narrow range is a finding rather than an absence of one. It is the condition in which an allocator can accumulate without moving the price, and it is also the condition in which volatility is sold too cheaply, because the recent past is the input everybody uses.
$93,870
Thirty-day high close
$85,460
Thirty-day low close
10%
Range, high to low
27%
Realized volatility, annualized
Source: Coinbase Exchange daily closes. Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
Bitcoin daily close
Coinbase Exchange, in dollars, last 120 days.
Source: Coinbase Exchange daily closes. Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
The only diversification question that matters
An allocation earns its place either by adding return or by not moving with everything else. The second claim is testable and it is tested here rather than asserted. Correlations are unstable, and they have a habit of going to one exactly when the diversification was supposed to pay.
How this was measured
- Prices are Coinbase Exchange daily closes, chosen over an aggregated mid because a single regulated venue is a defined measurement and a blend of venues is not. Realized volatility is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns over the stated window, annualized by the square root of 365 rather than 252, because this market trades every day. Correlations are Pearson coefficients on daily log returns over the same window. Drawdown is measured from the highest prior daily close in the series, not from an intraday high. A piece dated one day uses closes through the day before.
