Volatility is the input that decides how large a position can be, which makes it more consequential to an allocator than the direction of the price. It is measured here rather than implied, so it says what the asset did and not what options are charging for it.
27%
Bitcoin, thirty-day realized
41%
Bitcoin, ninety-day
31%
Ether, thirty-day
16.7
Equity implied volatility, for scale
Source: Coinbase Exchange daily closes. Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
Bitcoin thirty-day realized volatility
Annualized, percent, from daily closes.
Source: Coinbase Exchange daily closes. Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
The only diversification question that matters
An allocation earns its place either by adding return or by not moving with everything else. The second claim is testable and it is tested here rather than asserted. Correlations are unstable, and they have a habit of going to one exactly when the diversification was supposed to pay.
How this was measured
- Prices are Coinbase Exchange daily closes, chosen over an aggregated mid because a single regulated venue is a defined measurement and a blend of venues is not. Realized volatility is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns over the stated window, annualized by the square root of 365 rather than 252, because this market trades every day. Correlations are Pearson coefficients on daily log returns over the same window. Drawdown is measured from the highest prior daily close in the series, not from an intraday high. A piece dated one day uses closes through the day before.
