Bitcoin is quoted in dollars, stablecoins are claims on dollars, and the reserves behind the largest of them are dollar bills. For a non-dollar allocator the entire asset class carries a currency position, and it is usually unhedged because the instruments to hedge it are thin.
120.57
Broad dollar index, 22 July 2026
+1.6%
Change over ninety days
+0.7%
Change over one year
36%
Percentile against its own three years
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
Nominal broad dollar index
Daily, index. A rising line is a stronger dollar.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
What the curve is telling an allocator
The spread between two-year and ten-year yields prices the path of policy against the term premium. It is not a forecast and it has been wrong about recessions, but it is the market’s own summary of what money will cost over the horizon most allocations are sized against, and it moves before the data does.
How this was measured
- Series are taken from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via its public CSV endpoint, which needs no key and returns the full published history. Treasury yields are constant-maturity par yields, not the yield on any particular security. The ten-year inflation-indexed series is the real yield used here as a hurdle rate; the breakeven is the difference between it and the nominal. Option-adjusted spreads are ICE BofA index levels. A piece dated one day reads the most recent observation on or before the day before, because these series publish with a lag, and every figure names the date it belongs to. Observations are not carried forward across holidays.
