The shape of the Treasury curve is the market’s own summary of what money will cost over the horizon most allocations are sized against. It is quoted constantly and read carelessly, so it is worth putting the levels next to the spread.
| Maturity | Yield | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-month bill | 3.83% | |
| 2-year note | 4.07% | |
| 10-year note | 4.38% | |
| 30-year bond | 4.87% | |
| 10-year less 2-year | +0.31 pts |
Ten-year minus two-year Treasury spread
Daily, percentage points. Below zero is an inverted curve.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Computed by Institutional Asset Journal.
Why a rates column sits on this desk
Bitcoin pays no coupon. Every allocation to it is therefore financed at the return available on something that does, and the cleanest version of that is the real yield on ten-year government paper. When the real yield rises, the cost of holding a non-yielding asset rises with it, and the case has to work harder. That relationship does not require anyone to believe anything about blockchains.
How this was measured
- Series are taken from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via its public CSV endpoint, which needs no key and returns the full published history. Treasury yields are constant-maturity par yields, not the yield on any particular security. The ten-year inflation-indexed series is the real yield used here as a hurdle rate; the breakeven is the difference between it and the nominal. Option-adjusted spreads are ICE BofA index levels. A piece dated one day reads the most recent observation on or before the day before, because these series publish with a lag, and every figure names the date it belongs to. Observations are not carried forward across holidays.
